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PROF DAVID SIMPSON BACKS INDEPENDENCE
SNP Leader Alex Salmond MP today (Sunday) welcomed the support of eminent economist Professor David Simpson, who has added his name to the growing list of senior academics and business people who back the economic case for Independence.
Writing in today's Sunday Times, Professor Simpson, who was the founding Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute and was chief economic advisor to Standard Life, set out the positive case for Scottish Independence from an economic perspective. Professor Simpson also dismissed Labour's scaremongering attacks on the economics of Independence.
Speaking today, Mr Salmond said:
"I welcome Professor Simpson's heavyweight analysis, and the positive case he makes for the economic benefits of Independence. Professor Simpson's academic and business expertise is second to none, and so this argument will resonate throughout the business community in Scotland.
"The SNP are committed to a successful, wealthier Scotland, where we can grow our economy and allow our businesses to flourish. That's why more and more Scots believe that it's time for a fresh approach to moving our economy forward that only the SNP can deliver."
The full text of Professor Simpson's article is as follows:
INDEPENDENCE FOR GROWTH
David Simpson
A growing number of people in Scotland today seem to share my view that if the economy is to flourish so that we can escape from our culture of dependence, that is most likely to be brought about by political independence. Only a sovereign government can undertake the internal arrangements and negotiate the international agreements necessary to serve and protect Scotland's interests.
Much recent discussion on the economics of Scottish independence has centered on the budgetary position in any one year, whether that be the Government's own estimates, which look at the outturn figures from two years ago, or alternatively independent calculations for the current financial year. According to the latter, the non-oil budget deficit for this year is likely to be somewhat less than the official estimate for two years ago, while we know that the oil revenue estimate is more than £ 10 billion, and Treasury forecasts show continuing high oil revenues in future years. Such is the strength of oil revenues in the current financial year that it might even be that Scotland is one of the few countries in the world currently recording a fiscal surplus.
However, the central issue of the economic prospects for an independent Scotland cannot be addressed by concentrating on current fiscal arrangements budgetary balances, important though those may be. The real economic argument about Scottish independence must rather focus on whether the policy initiatives that independence would make possible could create a more rapid and sustainable rate of growth than has been the experience of the Scottish economy over the last generation.
Thus, even if the budgetary balance at the date of independence were to be positive, then wrong- headed economic policies would soon produce a rake's progress, and the consequent dissipation of that advantage. On the other hand, even if the budgetary balance at that time were negative, wise policies would produce within a very few years a transformed fiscal position.
Incidentally, I find it strange that the existence of a continuing non-oil deficit should ever be regarded as an argument for the political status quo, since that surely illustrates the failure of past and current economic policies in Scotland.
The debate on the economics of independence cannot be conducted as a balance sheet exercise in any single past year, however interesting that might be to the main participants. The key issue is what happens after the date of independence, and what really matters then is the rate of growth of the economy. Here, any objective measurement of the last 25 years will tell us that something fundamental needs to change if Scotland's position, and the performance of the Scottish economy, is to be improved over the next generation. Our rate of growth has been a little under 2 per cent, decidedly less than the UK as a whole, and only half the average rate of growth of small western European countries.
These differences may seem minor in any one year, but over a decade they make a decisive difference to economic prospects and welfare. Thus, from a position of budgetary penury in the 1980s, the Irish finance minister now sits in Dublin commanding a substantial budget surplus, thanks in no small measure to their low Corporation Tax strategy boosting economic activity. The only remaining problems for Ireland are how to disburse this largesse in a sensible and non-inflationary way.
Across our east coast in Norway the Norwegian finance minister succeeded perhaps better than any country in the world in avoiding the "resource curse" of having too much of a good thing by investing the oil wealth in a capital fund which will last almost forever.
Some people would argue that somehow Scotland would find it impossible to pursue such competitive and successful economic policies. However, the evident success of our near neighbours makes it difficult to sustain such an argument.
If Scotland does decide on independence, our future will lie not in the stars but in ourselves, in our ability to build a competitive economic structure, to determine policies suitable for Scottish economic conditions, and to encourage an economy based on long term growth, not short term thinking.
It is on these aspects that the policies of the various parties towards the Scottish economy should be judged, and it is on these factors that the economic case for independence must rest.
Economic growth and, in particular, growth in sustainable employment are largely the result of decisions taken by businesses. An independent government cannot directly create profitable commercial opportunities but it can help companies to realise these by pursuing business friendly policies. This is all the more important because we are living in a world of increasing mobility of capital and enterprise where there is intense competition between governments to create tax and regulatory environments that are friendly to business.
The best way that a government can help businesses plan for future growth, in addition to providing low corporate taxes, is to do whatever is in its power to reduce the range of uncertainty affecting business decisions. An independent government is in a much stronger position than a devolved administration to achieve this objective because it has direct control over its budget, regulatory system and international economic relations.
Author : SNP Press Office
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